'We must stop history repeating itself' says doctor as coronavirus cases increase by 116,000 in just one week

"Sadly, inexorably, increases in deaths will now follow on in coming weeks and well over 600 UK lives were lost in the last week," he said.

ONS data shows that more than 224,000 people have the virus – up from 116,000 last week. Hospital and intensive care admissions for coronavirus in the region are rising again, and there is clear evidence of gradual spread into older age groups in the worst affected areas, including the North West.

DR FURBER SAID:

"Every case generates more than one new case, through onward transmission – so the epidemic grows larger... In the North West there were over 1,800 cases per 100,000 of population on October 14. Scientists estimate the doubling time in the UK for new infections is between eight and 16 days and is even faster in some areas.

"Winter in the NHS is always a difficult period, and that is why, in the first wave, our strategy was 'contain, delay, research and mitigate' to push the first wave into spring. This time it is different as we are now heading into the colder, darker winter months. We are in the middle of a severe pandemic and the seasons are against us. Basically, we are running into a headwind.

"The NHS is bracing itself and staff will do what they always do, which is work their socks off to help as many people as possible. But we need to be realistic - there is only so much they can do. We all have to help our hard-working NHS staff continue to care for everyone who needs it urgently and provide as many non-urgent tests, checks and treatments as possible, by helping to stem the rising tide of infections.

"People point out that we must not lose sight of the indirect harms of Covid-19. They are absolutely right. We need to keep elective surgeries and non-urgent services open for as long as we can; we need to keep cancer treatment and diagnostic services going; and we need to continue to provide mental health services. Crucially, we need people to come forward for that care when they need it – and we know during the first peak, fear of the virus put many people off from doing so.

"The best way we can do this is to keep the number of Covid-19 cases down. If cases rise dramatically, the NHS will need to focus more on dealing with the life-threatening situations immediately in front of them. This can mean freeing up staff and space by postponing other non-urgent procedures and treatments. By keeping Covid-19 numbers low we help the NHS, and in turn, the NHS will be there to help us, our families and loved ones.

"The principles for how we keep transmission low have not changed. Above all else, if you have Covid-19 symptoms you must self-isolate in line with published guidance and get a test.

"At all times, even when you are well, wash your hands regularly, wear a face covering in confined spaces and follow the two metre social distancing rules. By keeping our contacts low, we reduce the number of opportunities for the virus to spread. I know this can be very hard, but it is an unfortunate scientific fact that this virus thrives on humans making social contact with one another.

"What I would give to have had the level of data, testing and medical insight we have now back in February and March this year. We now have much improved testing capabilities, we know in more detail where the disease is, and we have better treatments.

"Earlier in the year we were fighting a semi-invisible disease, about which we had little knowledge, and it seeded in the community at great speed. We now know where it is and how to tackle it – let’s grasp this opportunity and prevent history from repeating itself."